Housing downturn will last another four years, analyst says

James DeVuyst • October 18, 2018

Eitel Insights predicts that Vancouver’s current housing slump won’t bottom until 2020.

A maverick real estate analyst who predicted Metro Vancouver’s housing crash a year ago says the current slump will stretch out for another four years.

In Western Investor’s October 2017 edition, Dane Eitel of Vancouver’s Eitel Insights forecast that 2018 sales of detached houses in Metro Vancouver would collapse and the average detached-house price would fall from the $1.8 million peak in May 2017 to $1.6 million by 2018’s third quarter.

As of September, detached housing sales had indeed plunged 40.4% from a year earlier, and the benchmark price had hit $1.54 million, according to the Real Estate Board of Greater Vancouver. The average price was approximately $1.58 million.

Eitel, who applies stock market-style analytics to the housing market, now forecasts that the detached-house price in Metro Vancouver will sink in stages to a bottom of $1.4 million by 2020’s third quarter and trade at the level for nearly two more years. The turnaround will begin in January 2022 and it will be dramatic, he predicts.

“By the end of 2023 we will be back up to the 2017 peak pricing [$1.83 million]. But the breakout will be historic. Especially for those who purchase at or anywhere near the bottom.”

Eitel added that the average Metro Vancouver detached-house price by 2028 will be around $2.8 million, doubling in value from the 2021 bottom.

But the BC Real Estate Association contends that the current downturn is a government-caused blip and recovery is already underway.

According to the association’s calculations, the B.C. market has turned from its trough in June, and since then seasonally adjusted activity has increased around 3.5%.

But Eitel said that 40 years of Greater Vancouver detached-house sales and average-price cycles reveal an established trading pattern that will play out over the next decade.

He noted that the last long-term cycle began in October 1987 and ran to 1996, during which time average house prices increased 190% and peaked at $286,000 in February 1995.

The average price then dropped 19% to bottom out in December 1996. Prices did not recover to the earlier peak until November 2002, six years later.

We are seeing a similar pattern today, said Eitel, who added that he has applied his analytics to every major city in Canada and that some regions will outperform Vancouver and Toronto over the short term.

He cautioned that the current recovery in Toronto’s housing market is “a dead-cat bounce” that will soon come to an ugly end.

“There are some markets in Canada that will see strong growth in house prices even as Vancouver and Toronto decline,” Eitel said, adding that information is proprietary and available through Eitel Insights.

This article was originally posted by Business In Vancouver.

RECENT POSTS

Is Alternative Lending the Right Choice for Your Mortgage Needs?

By James De Vuyst • June 25, 2026
Alternative Lending in Canada: What It Is and When It Makes Sense Not everyone fits into the traditional lending box—and that’s where alternative mortgage lenders come in. Alternative lending refers to any mortgage solution that falls outside of the typical big bank offerings. These lenders are flexible, creative, and focused on helping Canadians who may not qualify for traditional financing still access the real estate market. Let’s explore when alternative lending might be the right fit for you. 1. You Have Damaged Credit Bad credit doesn’t have to mean your homeownership dreams are over. Many alternative lenders take a big-picture approach . While credit scores matter, they’ll also look at: Stable employment Consistent income Size of your down payment or existing equity If your credit has taken a hit but you can demonstrate strong income and savings—or have a solid explanation for past credit issues— an alternative lender may approve your mortgage when a bank won’t. Pro tip: Use an alternative mortgage as a short-term solution while you rebuild your credit, then refinance into a traditional mortgage with better terms down the line. 2. You're Self-Employed Being your own boss has its perks—but mortgage approval isn’t usually one of them. Traditional lenders require verifiable, consistent income—often two years’ worth. But self-employed Canadians typically write off significant expenses, reducing their declared income. Alternative lenders are more flexible and understanding of self-employed income structures. If your business is profitable and your personal finances are healthy, you may qualify even with lower stated income. Even if interest rates are slightly higher, this option is often worth it—especially when balanced against tax planning and business deductions . 3. You Earn Non-Traditional Income Today’s income sources aren’t always conventional. If you earn through: Airbnb rentals Tips and gratuities Rideshare or delivery apps (like Uber or Uber Eats) Commissions or contracts You might face challenges with traditional lenders. Alternative lenders are often more willing to work with these non-standard income streams , especially if the rest of your mortgage application is strong. Some will consider a shorter income history or evaluate your average earnings in a more flexible way. 4. You Need Expanded Debt-Service Ratios Canada’s mortgage stress test has made it harder for many borrowers to qualify with big banks. Alternative lenders can offer more generous debt-service ratio limits —meaning you might be able to qualify for a larger mortgage or a more suitable home, especially in competitive markets. While traditional GDS/TDS limits typically sit at 35/42 or 39/44 (depending on your credit), some alternative lenders will go higher, especially if: You have a larger down payment Your loan-to-value ratio is lower Your overall financial profile is strong It’s not a free-for-all—but it’s more flexible than bank lending. So, Is Alternative Lending Right for You? Alternative lending is designed to offer solutions when life doesn’t fit the traditional mold . Whether you're rebuilding credit, running your own business, or earning income in new ways, this path could help you get into a home sooner—or keep your current one. And here’s the key: You can only access alternative lenders through the mortgage broker channel . Let’s Explore Your Options Not sure where you fit? That’s okay. Every mortgage story is unique—and I’m here to help you write yours. If you’re curious about alternative mortgage products, want a second opinion, or need help getting approved, let’s talk . I’d be happy to help you explore the best solution for your situation. Reach out anytime. It would be a pleasure to work with you.

Bank of Canada Holds Rate at 2.25% — June 10, 2026

By James De Vuyst • June 10, 2026
The Bank of Canada announced today that it is maintaining its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%. For Canadian homeowners, buyers, and anyone with a mortgage on the horizon — here's what you need to know.

Don’t Let Collections Derail Your Mortgage Application

By James De Vuyst • May 28, 2026
Can You Get a Mortgage If You Have Collections on Your Credit Report? Short answer? Not easily. Long answer? It depends—and it’s more common (and fixable) than you might think. When it comes to applying for a mortgage, your credit report tells lenders a story. Collections—debts that have been passed to a collection agency because they weren’t paid on time—are big red flags in that story. Regardless of how or why they got there, open collections are going to hurt your chances of getting approved. Let’s break this down. What Exactly Is a Collection? A collection appears on your credit report when a bill goes unpaid for long enough that the lender decides to stop chasing you—and hires a collection agency to do it instead. It doesn’t matter whether it was an unpaid phone bill, a forgotten credit card, or a disputed fine: to a lender, it signals risk. And lenders don’t like risk. Why It Matters to Mortgage Lenders? Lenders use your credit report to gauge how trustworthy you are with borrowed money. If they see you haven’t paid a past debt, especially recently, it suggests you might do the same with a new mortgage—and that’s enough to get your application denied. Even small collections can cause problems. A $32 unpaid utility bill might seem insignificant to you, but to a lender, it’s a red flag waving loudly. But What If I Didn’t Know About the Collection? It happens all the time. You move provinces and miss a final utility charge. Your cell provider sends a bill to an old address. Or maybe the collection is showing in error—credit reports aren’t perfect, and mistakes do happen. Regardless of the reason, the responsibility to resolve it still falls on you. Even if it’s an honest oversight or an error, lenders will expect you to clear it up or prove it’s been paid. And What If I Chose Not to Pay It? Some people intentionally leave certain collections unpaid—maybe they disagree with a charge, or feel a fine is unfair. Here are a few common “moral stand” collections: Disputed phone bills COVID-related fines Traffic tickets Unpaid spousal or child support While you might feel justified, lenders don’t take sides. They’re not interested in why a collection exists—only that it hasn’t been dealt with. And if it’s still active, that could be enough to derail your mortgage application. How Can You Find Out What’s On Your Report? Easy. You can check it yourself through services like Equifax or TransUnion, or you can work with a mortgage advisor to go through a full pre-approval. A pre-approval will quickly uncover any credit issues, including collections—giving you a chance to fix them before you apply for a mortgage. What To Do If You Have Collections Verify: Make sure the collection is accurate. Pay or Dispute: Settle the debt or begin a dispute process if it’s an error. Get Proof: Even if your credit report hasn’t updated yet, documentation showing the debt is paid can be enough for some lenders. Work With a Pro: A mortgage advisor can help you build a strategy and connect you with lenders who offer flexible solutions. Collections are common, but they can absolutely block your path to mortgage financing. Whether you knew about them or not, the best approach is to take action early. If you’d like to find out where you stand—or need help navigating your credit report—I’d be happy to help. Let’s make sure your next mortgage application has the best possible chance of approval.